World Cup 2026 Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana and Panama — Preview and Odds

The last time England and Croatia met at a World Cup, it was the 2018 semi-final in Moscow. Mario Mandžukić scored in extra time, Croatia went to the final, and an entire nation’s “it’s coming home” chorus went silent. Eight years later, they meet again — this time in the group stage of World Cup 2026 Group L, joined by a Ghanaian side still carrying the sting of a controversial 2022 exit and Panama, returning to the tournament for only the second time.

I have followed England through enough tournament cycles to recognise the pattern: overwhelming squad depth, suffocating expectation, and a tendency to make straightforward situations feel complicated. Group L should be manageable for England. Whether they actually manage it comfortably is another question entirely, and that gap between should and will is where the betting value sits for Irish punters watching from across the water.

The Four Teams at a Glance

Anyone who watches the Premier League — and that includes most of Ireland — already knows England’s squad. The depth is absurd by historical standards. Jude Bellingham orchestrating from midfield, Bukayo Saka terrorising full-backs on the right, Phil Foden drifting into pockets of space, Declan Rice shielding the defence. Behind them, a goalkeeping position that remains genuinely competitive between two or three top-level options. England’s problem has never been talent. It has been converting that talent into tournament performances that match the expectation. Three semi-finals and a final across four major tournaments tells you they get close. The question is whether the new coaching setup — whoever leads them into 2026 — can push them past “close” and into “decisive.”

Croatia are ageing, and there is no diplomatic way to say it. The golden generation that reached the 2018 final and the 2022 semi-final was built around Luka Modrić, Ivan Perišić and Marcelo Brozović. Modrić, at 40, may feature in some capacity, but his legs are no longer those of the player who dismantled Argentina’s midfield in Nizhny Novgorod. Croatia’s transition to the next generation has been uneven. Joško Gvardiol anchors the defence with genuine world-class quality, and Lovro Majer has moments of creative brilliance, but the overall squad lacks the depth that carried them through two consecutive deep runs. They remain tactically sophisticated — Zlatko Dalić’s 4-3-3 shape is drilled to the millimetre — but the energy to execute that system across seven matches in North American summer heat is a legitimate concern.

Ghana’s World Cup history is richer than casual observers might expect. The 2010 quarter-final — Asamoah Gyan’s missed penalty against Uruguay after Suarez’s deliberate handball — remains one of the most dramatic sequences in tournament history. This 2026 squad is a younger vintage, rebuilt around players emerging from European academies and mid-tier leagues. They are quick, physically imposing and capable of producing individual moments of brilliance. The structure behind those moments, though, is less reliable. Ghana’s qualifying campaign featured wins built on individual errors by opponents as often as systemic dominance, and that inconsistency makes them a dangerous opponent for any team while also making them vulnerable to better-organised sides.

Panama return to the World Cup having qualified through the CONCACAF pathway that continues to produce competitive if limited squads. Their 2018 campaign — a first-ever World Cup appearance that included a group-stage exit but a famous goal against England — gave the country a taste of the tournament. This squad is slightly more experienced at club level, with several players now established in MLS and Liga MX. They will be physical, direct and extremely difficult to break down in the first half of matches. Expecting them to qualify from this group is unrealistic, but expecting them to make life uncomfortable for at least one of the bigger sides is entirely reasonable.

England vs Croatia: 2018 Revisited

The storyline writes itself, and that is precisely why it is worth looking past it. The 2018 semi-final was a different match played by different squads in different circumstances. What matters now is the tactical reality of this fixture in 2026. England’s midfield is deeper and more athletic than the one Croatia overran in Moscow. Rice provides a level of defensive protection that allows Bellingham and Foden to operate with greater freedom. Croatia, meanwhile, no longer possess the midfield engine that could control possession for sustained periods against top-level opposition.

I expect England to dominate territory in this match. Their pressing triggers, refined over several years of tournament football, will push Croatia deeper than Dalić would like, and Croatia’s ageing legs may struggle to sustain the high-intensity counter-pressing that their system demands. The match result market will price England around 4/7 to win, Croatia around 9/2 and the draw around 3/1. Those feel about right, though the draw price has some appeal if you believe Croatia’s tactical discipline can contain England despite the physical mismatch. Dalić’s sides have a habit of staying in matches through sheer structure even when outgunned in raw talent, and a 0-0 or 1-1 draw is plausible.

The more interesting market might be Bellingham to score at any time, likely priced around 11/4. His ability to arrive in the box from deep positions — a hallmark of his game at Real Madrid — is tailor-made for matches where England will dominate possession and crosses will flow into the area. Croatia’s zonal marking at set pieces has occasionally been exposed, and Bellingham’s timing in those situations is exceptional.

Ghana’s Group L Ambitions and the Panama Factor

Ghana’s best chance in this group lies in the fixture against Panama. A win there, followed by a point against either England or Croatia, could put them in contention for a best third-placed finish. That pathway mirrors what several African nations have attempted at expanded tournaments — target the weakest opponent, compete hard in one other match, and hope the mathematics work. Ghana’s pace on the counter, particularly through wide attackers, will cause problems for Panama’s more limited full-backs, and I would price Ghana around 1/2 to win that match.

Against England and Croatia, Ghana’s approach will be reactive: sit deep, absorb pressure, and look to exploit transitions. The danger for Ghana is that their defensive concentration tends to waver in the final fifteen minutes of matches, when fatigue erodes the discipline that keeps the shape intact. Both England and Croatia have the bench quality to introduce fresh legs late in games, and that is where Ghana’s resistance typically cracks. For betting purposes, the second-half goals market in Ghana’s matches against the group’s stronger sides is worth monitoring.

Panama will approach every fixture as a battle of attrition. Their physical style — aggressive in challenges, compact in shape, willing to foul strategically — disrupts opponents’ rhythm effectively. England, in particular, have occasionally struggled against sides that refuse to allow them space to play. The memory of Iceland in 2016 lingers precisely because it exposed England’s vulnerability when teams deny them tempo. Panama are not Iceland, but they share the willingness to make every minute uncomfortable. Over 1.5 match cards in England vs Panama, likely priced around 4/5, reflects the kind of fixture this will be.

Group L Schedule in IST

Group L fixtures will be played across eastern and central US venues, which keeps the time conversion manageable for Irish viewers. The five-hour difference during summer means a noon ET kick-off lands at 5pm in Dublin, a 3pm ET start translates to 8pm IST, and the 6pm ET evening slots push to 11pm. The 9pm ET fixtures — reserved for the biggest matches in the final group-stage round — run to 2am Irish time.

England matches will almost certainly draw premium broadcast slots, which typically means the later evening times in the US. For Irish punters, that means late-night viewing — somewhere between 11pm and 2am for most England fixtures. Croatia vs Ghana and Panama vs Ghana are more likely to occupy the earlier time slots, giving Irish viewers a chance to watch those matches at more sociable hours. If you are building accumulators across the day’s fixtures, the Group L matches offer a useful late-evening anchor for your betting positions.

Qualification Scenarios

England are near-certain to qualify. Pricing them below 1/10 to advance from Group L feels accurate, and there is no value in backing that outcome at those odds. The genuine question is whether they finish first or second, and that depends primarily on the Croatia match. If England win that fixture, they will almost certainly top the group regardless of other results. If they draw, the goal-difference battle with Croatia could go to the final matchday.

Croatia’s qualification chances sit around 70%, reflected in market prices of roughly 2/5. Their floor is higher than Ghana’s — the tactical sophistication and tournament experience provide a baseline that younger, less structured squads cannot match — but their ceiling is lower than it was four years ago. Croatia need four points from three matches to be confident of qualifying, and the most realistic path is beating Panama, drawing with England, and managing Ghana. A four-point haul with a positive goal difference should be enough for second place or a safe third-place passage.

Ghana at around 7/4 to qualify offers the value play in this group. If they beat Panama and pick up a draw against Croatia — both realistic outcomes — they reach four points and enter the best-third-place calculation with a credible claim. The risk is that Ghana’s inconsistency produces a flat performance against Panama, which would collapse their entire pathway. That volatility is reflected in the price, and I think it is priced about right rather than offering clear value.

Panama’s qualification odds sit beyond 12/1, reflecting a path that requires them to beat Ghana and draw with one of England or Croatia. I would not back them at that price. The squad simply does not have the depth to sustain competitive performances across three matches against this calibre of opponent.

Group L Odds and Betting Picks

The group winner market prices England at around 1/3, Croatia at 7/2, Ghana at 12/1 and Panama beyond 33/1. England at those odds offer no value, and the group is not competitive enough at the top to justify backing anyone else for the win. Where the value sits is in the match-level markets and the qualification outcomes.

My three preferred positions for Group L are these. First, the draw in England vs Croatia at 3/1 — Croatia’s tactical discipline and experience in big tournament matches make this a genuine possibility, and the price is slightly generous. Second, Ghana to qualify from Group L at 7/4 — the expanded format’s third-place safety net benefits exactly this profile of team, and Ghana’s individual quality gives them a floor of two or three points that could be enough. Third, over 2.5 goals in England vs Panama at around 4/5 — England will create numerous chances against Panama’s deep block, and while Panama will defend resolutely, the sheer volume of England’s attacks should produce goals, potentially with a late Panama consolation when England relax.

Avoid backing Croatia outright to win the group. Their price of 7/2 looks tempting but requires them to beat England, which their current squad is unlikely to manage over 90 minutes against this vintage of English midfield. Croatia’s value is in the qualification market, not the group-topping market, and even there, the 2/5 price accurately reflects their chances rather than offering clear edge.

The Irish Angle on Group L

Irish punters know these England players intimately. Every weekend in the Premier League, we watch Saka skin full-backs, we watch Rice intercept passes that seemed safe, we watch Bellingham arrive in the box at precisely the wrong moment for defenders. That familiarity is an edge in betting markets because it allows more precise assessment of player-level propositions. When the bookmaker prices Saka to score at 3/1 in a match where England will dominate possession on the right side, and you have watched Saka cut inside and shoot forty times this season, you have a better sense of whether that price is accurate than a bettor who only follows international football.

Use that Premier League knowledge. Player prop markets — goals, shots on target, assists — are often set by compilers working from international data samples that are far smaller than the domestic dataset available to regular Premier League viewers. That informational edge is small but real, and in a group where England will dominate most fixtures, the player markets offer more interesting opportunities than the match results.