One Goal From History: Messi, Klose and Argentina’s Shortening Price

Some records feel like they were left ajar on purpose, waiting for the right man to walk through. Miroslav Klose scored sixteen World Cup goals across four tournaments — a German monument of consistency that has stood since 2014. On Sunday, with a hat-trick against Algeria, Lionel Messi drew level with it. At thirty-eight, in what is almost certainly his final World Cup, the greatest player of his generation now stands one goal from owning the most cherished scoring record in the men’s game. He gets his next chance on Monday evening, Irish time, against Austria. If you do not feel the pull of that, you may not actually like football.

Lionel Messi stands one goal from the all-time World Cup scoring record as Argentina face Austria. Photo for illustration.

A Record Within Reach

The maths is poetic in its tidiness: sixteen goals each, Klose and Messi, and a 38-year-old captain with the bit between his teeth. Argentina arrive at AT&T Stadium in Arlington unbeaten this tournament and riding an eight-match winning run; a victory over Austria would virtually secure their advancement from Group J. Messi’s hamstring scare has resolved, and after the Algeria hat-trick there is no doubt about either his fitness or his form.

Even in Ireland, where our footballing loyalties were buried with the play-off defeat to Czechia, Messi commands something close to universal goodwill. He is the player even the begrudgers admire. A nation of neutrals will tune in at six o’clock on Monday hoping, quietly, to witness the record fall.

Austria Will Not Roll Over

The romance comes with a caveat, and Austria are it. They beat Jordan 3–1 in their opener and arrive with belief and a captain in David Alaba who chose his words carefully this week. "We know what kind of opponent we’re up against, what kind of quality they have in their ranks, even besides Messi, but also what they’re capable of as a team," Alaba said. From the Argentine bench, assistant coach Pablo Aimar returned the respect: "Austria is a very tough team, as we’re seeing with the vast majority of the teams participating in this World Cup."

That mutual wariness matters for the betting. Austria are not coming to Arlington to be a footnote in Messi’s story, and a disciplined Austrian shape could make goals harder to come by than the script demands.

The Odds and the Angles

The market has already responded to Messi’s heroics. Argentina were cut from 10/1 (11.00) to 8/1 (9.00) for the outright on the FanDuel board dated 21 June, a sharp shortening that reflects both the Algeria result and the sense that the holders are rounding into form. For Monday’s match they are 4/7 (1.58) to beat Austria, with the draw at 13/5 (3.65).

The angle most Irish punters will gravitate toward is not the match result but the man. Messi is 3/1 (4.00) for the World Cup Golden Boot on the 20 June board, level with Kylian Mbappé and Harry Kane at the head of that market — a price that looks generous for a player one goal from history and visibly central to everything Argentina do.

My pick: Messi anytime goalscorer against Austria is the sentimental and statistical favourite all at once, and his Golden Boot price at 3/1 is the longer-term value play. Backing Argentina at 4/7 to win is sound but unspectacular; the story — and the better odds — live with the man chasing Klose.

If you want a position on Messi’s milestone, the euro-facing brands in our pool — WinRolla and RichRoyal among them — have been pricing goalscorer and Golden Boot markets throughout the group stage. Kick-off is 6:00pm Irish time, the gentlest slot of a long Monday card, and the one most worth setting aside for.

Outright and Golden Boot odds are from the FanDuel board as published by FOX Sports, dated 20–21 June 2026; match odds are consensus values recorded on 22 June 2026 and are indicative. 18+. Gamble responsibly — visit gamblingcare.ie.