Belgium at the 2026 World Cup: Golden Generation's Last Dance?
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I remember the day Belgium reached number one in the FIFA world rankings. It was September 2018, a few months after their third-place finish at the World Cup in Russia, and the reaction in the Belgian football world was a mixture of pride and frustration. Pride because the ranking confirmed what everyone already knew — this was an extraordinarily talented squad. Frustration because rankings don’t come with trophies, and the golden generation of Hazard, De Bruyne, Lukaku and Courtois had produced brilliant football without the silverware to show for it. Eight years later, the frustration has deepened. The golden generation’s window is closing — some would say it’s already closed — and the 2026 World Cup in North America may be the last opportunity for its surviving members to prove that all that talent wasn’t wasted.
Belgium are drawn into Group G alongside Egypt, Iran and New Zealand. On paper, it’s one of the more straightforward groups at the tournament. In practice, the question isn’t whether Belgium can qualify — they almost certainly will — but whether the squad’s transition from golden generation to whatever comes next is far enough advanced to sustain a genuine challenge in the knockout rounds.
De Bruyne, Doku and Belgium’s Transition
Kevin De Bruyne is 34 and has spent the last two years managing a body that no longer tolerates the demands he’s placed on it since his early twenties. Hamstring injuries, knee problems, and the accumulated fatigue of a career that has included multiple Premier League titles and Champions League campaigns mean the Manchester City midfielder arrives at this World Cup as a diminished version of the player who once dominated European football. But diminished De Bruyne is still better than almost anyone else’s best midfielder, and his passing vision — the ability to see spaces and play balls that unlock defences from 40 yards — remains unmatched in world football. The coaching staff will use him carefully, limiting his minutes in the group stage to preserve him for the knockout rounds where his experience and quality could be decisive.
Jeremy Doku represents the future. The Manchester City winger has developed into one of the Premier League’s most exciting players, his dribbling ability and pace making him a nightmare for full-backs who have to choose between standing off (and watching him drive at the defence) or pressing tight (and being beaten one-on-one). Doku’s improvement in the final third — his decision-making, his crossing, and his ability to score from wide positions — has transformed him from a raw talent into a genuine match-winner at international level. If Belgium are going to produce a deep run at this World Cup, Doku’s performances will be central to it.
Romelu Lukaku’s international scoring record is remarkable — he remains Belgium’s all-time top scorer with well over 80 goals — but his effectiveness at the 2022 World Cup, where he missed several clear chances against Croatia in a must-win group match, raised questions about his big-game reliability that haven’t been fully answered. At 33, Lukaku still possesses the physical attributes (strength, pace, aerial presence) that make him a handful for any defence, but his first touch under pressure and his movement in tight spaces — the qualities that separate good international strikers from great ones — remain inconsistent. The coaching staff face a genuine dilemma: start Lukaku for his goals and experience, or go with younger alternatives who offer more mobility and pressing intensity.
The midfield beyond De Bruyne has improved. Amadou Onana brings physical presence and energy at Aston Villa, his ability to cover ground and compete in aerial duels providing the defensive base that allows more creative players to express themselves. Youri Tielemans’ experience adds a passing quality that complements Onana’s athleticism, and the combination gives Belgium a midfield pairing that can compete with most opponents in the group stage.
Defensively, the transition has been more painful than anywhere else in the squad. Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld have retired, leaving a centre-back void that has been filled by younger players who lack the experience and natural partnership of their predecessors. Wout Faes at Leicester and Zeno Debast at Sporting provide the most likely partnership, but neither has the international pedigree that Belgium’s golden-era defenders possessed, and their communication — the instinctive understanding of when to step, when to drop, when to cover — is still developing at the highest level. Arthur Theate offers a left-footed alternative, and the coaching staff have experimented with three-at-the-back formations to provide additional defensive cover, but the bottom line is clear: Belgium’s defence in 2026 is a tier below their attack, and that imbalance will be exposed by the best opponents in the knockout rounds. Thibaut Courtois in goal remains world-class — his shot-stopping and command of the penalty area are among the best at the tournament — but even the finest goalkeeper needs defenders in front of him who can organise and compete consistently, and Belgium’s current options don’t yet inspire that level of confidence.
Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran and New Zealand
Belgium’s group is the least glamorous at the tournament, but it contains enough quality to demand respect. Egypt bring the star power of Mohamed Salah — one of the most prolific forwards in world football, whose Liverpool performances over the past seven years have made him a household name in every Irish household with a television — and a squad that qualified through a competitive African pathway. Salah’s ability to score goals at the highest level makes Egypt a genuine threat in the Belgium match, and the prospect of De Bruyne vs Salah creates one of the most intriguing individual battles of the group stage.
Iran’s participation remains subject to geopolitical uncertainty, with the ongoing situation in the Middle East creating questions about whether their squad will be able to prepare and travel normally. If Iran do participate, they bring a squad hardened by years of competing under difficult circumstances — political pressure, limited access to friendly matches, and the weight of representing a nation in turmoil. Their defensive organisation at the 2022 World Cup, where they competed closely with England and the USA, demonstrated they are capable of competitive performances against superior opposition. If Iran are replaced or withdraw, the replacement side is unlikely to pose a greater threat.
New Zealand’s qualification through the Oceanian confederation gives the group its minnow, and the All Whites’ squad — while containing several players with experience in European lower leagues and the A-League — lacks the quality to trouble Belgium, Egypt or a functional Iran. This is the fixture where Belgium should build confidence and goal difference.
Belgium should qualify with seven or nine points. The Egypt match is the key fixture — a win there would secure top spot and a favourable knockout draw, while a defeat or draw could send Belgium into a more challenging Round of 32 path. Belgium to top Group G is priced at around 4/7, which feels about right given Salah’s ability to influence a single match.
The Irish Connection: Belgian Clubs and Irish Players
Belgium holds a special place in Irish football’s development pathway. Over the years, several Irish players have developed their careers in the Belgian Pro League — a league that offers competitive football, European competition exposure, and a standard of living that appeals to young players making their first move abroad. The connection runs both ways: Belgian scouts regularly attend League of Ireland matches, and the pathway from Ireland to Belgium has produced players who went on to represent Ireland at senior level.
For Irish punters, the Belgian Pro League’s familiarity provides a small but genuine information edge. Many of Belgium’s squad players — particularly the defensive options and deeper midfield alternatives — ply their trade in a league that Irish football followers encounter through European competition and transfer connections. That awareness of squad depth, of which bench players might come on and change a match, is the kind of contextual knowledge that helps in live betting scenarios where substitutions alter the dynamic of a game.
Beyond the club connections, there’s a cultural affinity. Belgium, like Ireland, is a small European nation that punches above its weight in football — a country that produces talent disproportionate to its population and sends that talent to the biggest clubs in the world. Irish fans understand the psychology of supporting a small nation with big ambitions, and that empathy creates a natural interest in Belgium’s World Cup campaign that goes beyond the betting angles.
Belgium’s Odds and Our Betting View
Belgium are priced at approximately 20/1 (21.00 decimal) to win the 2026 World Cup. That price reflects the market’s view that the golden generation’s decline has reduced Belgium from genuine contenders to hopeful outsiders, and I broadly agree with that assessment. The 20/1 price implies a probability of around 5%, which feels right for a squad that has the attacking quality to beat anyone on their day but the defensive vulnerability to lose to any side that can exploit their centre-back weakness.
The value in Belgium’s markets lies in the group stage rather than the outright. Belgium to qualify from Group G is around 1/4, which is short but reliable for accumulator building. De Bruyne to register an assist during the group stage is priced at evens, reflecting his reduced minutes but undeniable quality when he’s on the pitch. And Doku to score at any point during the tournament is available at around 6/4 — a price that underestimates his growing goal threat from wide positions.
For the outright, 20/1 is tempting but ultimately not where I’d place my money. The defensive concerns are too significant, the age profile of key players too advanced, and the competition in the knockout rounds too intense for Belgium to sustain a run to the final. Back them through the group, enjoy the De Bruyne show while it lasts, and save your outright stakes for squads with fewer question marks at the back.
The Clock Runs Down
There’s a melancholy to Belgium’s 2026 World Cup campaign that extends beyond football analysis. This is likely the last major tournament for De Bruyne, for Lukaku, and for a generation of players who were genuinely among the best in the world for the better part of a decade. They reached a World Cup semi-final, they topped the FIFA rankings, they produced moments of brilliance that will feature in highlight reels for decades — and yet the trophy cabinet at international level remains empty. The 2018 semi-final defeat to France, where a single Umtiti header separated the sides, will haunt Belgian football for years as the moment when the golden generation came closest to the ultimate prize and fell short by the smallest margin imaginable.
The transition to the next generation is already underway. Doku, Onana, Debast, and the younger players who will carry Belgian football into the 2028 European Championship represent a second wave of talent that may not match the golden generation’s peak but has time on its side. The 2026 World Cup serves a dual purpose: it gives the old guard one final opportunity to produce the result their careers deserve, while giving the new guard the tournament experience that will define their own international journeys.
For Irish punters, Belgium offer a reminder that quality alone doesn’t win tournaments. Timing, luck, defensive solidity, and the ability to peak at precisely the right moment matter just as much as the talent in the squad. Belgium have had the talent. Whether they have the rest — at this late stage of their golden generation’s arc — is the question that the 2026 World Cup will answer. My gut says the answer is no, but I’d love to be wrong. Sometimes the last dance is the best one.